WIREDGOV

Ambitious scenarios show renewables could meet between 60-90% of UK electricity demand by 2030

A new report by WWF has said that renewable sources of energy could meet between 60-90% of the UK’s electricity demand by 2030, and recommends that the government sets its target at no less than 60% for renewable energy generation to provide certainty for investors.

The UK could have an affordable and sustainable power system by taking ambitious action to reduce its demand for electricity, providing stable investment certainty for the renewables industry and moving towards greater interconnection with Europe.

The report, Positive Energy, found that with a strong focus on renewable energy and energy efficiency, it is possible to largely decarbonise the UK power sector and maintain system security without resorting to new nuclear power. A wide range of organisations have welcomed the report's contribution to the energy debate and supported many or all of its recommendations.

The report, based on modelling by GL Garrad Hassan (GL GH), developed six scenarios for the UK’s electricity system in 2030. The scenarios, which differ according to the level of electricity demand and the use of different methods for providing system security – ensuring that there is no risk of ‘the lights going out’ – all achieve the near decarbonisation of the power sector by 2030, as recommended by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).

More interconnection, higher renewables

WWF is also calling for better interconnection and market integration with Europe; if this happens, the report’s most ambitious scenarios show that renewables could meet almost 90% of UK electricity demand by 2030. This would create a springboard for the UK to become a net exporter of clean energy to the rest of Europe.

High levels of interconnection would also mean that much less new gas-fired capacity would be needed in the UK to ensure system security thus reducing costs and the amount of infrastructure needing to be built. WWF warned against over-reliance on gas, as this risks a ‘lock-in’ to high-carbon infrastructure, which would undermine efforts to reduce emissions and increase reliance on imported and costly fossil fuels.

Commenting on the report, David Nussbaum, chief executive of WWF-UK, said: “This report is inspiring, but also entirely realistic. It shows that a clean, renewable energy future really is within our grasp. If we seize this opportunity, it will lay the foundations for a clean industrial revolution in the UK, with all the jobs and export opportunities that brings, as well as being a major step forward in tackling climate change.

“Investing in clean energy therefore offers us a means to tackle the two most crucial market failures that now confront the world – the financial crisis and climate change. The only question that remains is, are we bold enough to take it?”

Energy efficiency & capital costs

The report also found that strong support for renewables now can significantly reduce their costs in the future. It concludes that a strong renewable energy target for 2030 and stable financial support mechanisms are key to substantially reducing the cost of renewable energy for the UK, building a strong platform for investment and maximising employment opportunities from this new industrial sector.

In addition, Positive Energy found that affordability and sustainability can work hand in hand, with energy efficiency measures massively reducing costs for consumers. The report shows that ambitious action on energy efficiency could reduce the capital costs of generation and interconnection by up to £40bn by 2030 and that a concerted drive to reduce energy demand in households has the potential to more than offset the costs of meeting renewable energy goals.

Investor certainty critical

WWF also argued that the government needs to provide the level of certainty for investors willing to make large-scale investment in the UK renewables supply chain by making a greater long-term commitment to a target of at least 60% renewables in the UK’s energy mix by 2030. The report also said there was a need for stable market arrangements which provide long-term revenue certainty to reduce risk and mobilise capital investment in renewables.

David Nussbaum said: “Harnessing UK renewables potential will help to reduce the volatility of UK consumer bills, as they won’t be at the mercy of fossil fuel price fluctuations, which have driven the majority of price rises in recent years. Examples from other countries, as well as industry projections, show that renewable energy could also create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the UK.

“Failure to commit to a high-renewables future would leave us facing the prospect of dangerous levels of climate change and high energy prices. The opportunity offered by the clean energy revolution is one that we cannot afford to miss.”

The report's findings on the potential of renewable electricity are far more ambitious than those put forward by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in its Renewable Energy Review in May and by several other studies by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC).

However, renewable build rates in the WWF scenarios to 2020 are lower than the government’s own forecasts contained in its National Renewable Energy Action Plan and significantly below industry projections on realistic build rates. The difference is that in WWF’s scenarios rather than build rates ‘falling off a cliff’ post 2020, growth is maintained providing long term opportunities for industrial growth.

Notes to editors

1. WWF’s UK energy report, Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can transform the UK by 2030, is available here. The report has been welcomed by a range of organisations, including: Siemens; Unilever; Procter & Gamble; National Grid; Crown Estate; SSE; Triodos Bank; Renewable UK; Vestas; RSA; Renewable Energy Systems; Interface Flor; Ecotricity; Good Energy; Lark Energy; Carbon Trust; National Energy Action for Warm Homes; Consumer Focus; G Cube Insurance; Jeremy Leggett; Jonathan Porritt; Dimitri Zenghelis; Caroline Lucas MP; Alan Whitehead MP; Tessa Munt MP, Sir Graham Watson MEP, PRASEG; RSPB; Greenpeace; and Friends of the Earth (for a full list see here).

2. The report provides detailed capital costs breakdown out to 2030, covering renewable generation, gas generation and interconnection infrastructure out to 2030. Costs range from £170bn to £216bn, depending on ambitions to reduce energy demand; these capital costs are based on the latest studies that were prepared this year by Mott Macdonald for the CCC and by Arup for DECC. WWF’s report goes much further than the capital costs forecasts of recent major UK reports such as the CCC's Renewable Energy Review and Ofgem's Project Discovery, which did not look beyond 2020/2025.

3. The Government's Offshore Valuation Report shows that the levelised costs of offshore wind could decrease to around £70-£80/MWh by 2030 (compared to £140-£150/MWh today), whilst Siemens recently stated that offshore wind could be fully cost competitive globally between 2020 and 2025. The Offshore Valuation Report also found that using just one third of the UK's wind, wave and tidal resource could: unlock the electricity equivalent of 1 billion barrels of oil a year (matching North Sea oil and gas production); give CO2 reductions of 1.1 billion tonnes by 2050; and create 145,000 new UK jobs.

4. The CCC's Renewable Energy Review estimated that the costs of meeting the 2020 Renewable Energy Target would result in a 4% increase in household energy bills, all of which could be offset by the 14% reduction in energy demand in households by 2020. The UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) say that demand could be cut by 50% by 2050 in homes and transport and energy efficiency measures could reduce decarbonisation costs by up to £70bn by 2050. The European Climate Foundation (ECF) Roadmap 2050 says that energy efficiency measures could save the construction of 440 mid-sized coal power stations in Europe by 2050.

5. The potential for job creation in the UK’s renewable sector is enormous: Renewable UK believes that the offshore wind and marine renewable sectors alone could create from 44,000 to 115,000 jobs in the UK by 2021 link; a Carbon Trust report on marine renewables found that the UK could capture 22% of the global accessible market in wave and tidal stream technologies which could create 68,000 jobs in the UK link; and the European Renewable Energy Council have said that, if the EU was to aim for a 45% renewable energy target by 2030, this could create up to 4.4 million jobs in the EU’s renewable energy sector by that date link.

For further information, please contact:
George Smeeton, Tel: 01483 412 388, Mob: 07917 052 948, email: GSmeeton@wwf.org.uk