Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
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Government embarks on study of global environmental migration
The Government Office for Science today begins its latest Foresight project examining how future environmental change could affect human migration in the long term around the world.
A growing, urbanising global population over the next 50 years will create demand for more food, energy and water. Many modern ‘megacities’ are located in coastal areas or river deltas, which are vulnerable to flooding and sea-level rise. Changes to the climate could lead to reduced crop productivity in many regions, desertification and increased levels of water scarcity. A wealthier population will mean substantially greater demand for food, which must be produced from the same land area, with fewer inputs, at the same time as coping with climate impacts and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This threatens to create a ‘perfect storm’ of global events.
Adaptation measures can help, such as improved flooding defences or the development and use of more drought resistant crops. However, a likely impact of environmental change and population growth is an increase in global human migration as people move to cope with a deteriorating environment.
The Foresight project will explore:
The global patterns and impacts of migration over the next 50 years arising from environmental change.The challenges that could result from changing migration patterns and how these might be managed.
The project is sponsored by the Home Office and the Department of Energy and Climate Change.
Professor John Beddington, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of the Government Office for Science, who oversees Foresight projects, said:
“A growing and increasingly urban population, coming out of poverty, a changing climate and pressures on land and water mean environmental migration is becoming a pressing policy concern. We need to study the evidence carefully to make the best decisions.
“I am delighted that Phil Woolas MP and Joan Ruddock MP have agreed to be the sponsoring ministers for this report and I look forward to working with them to tackle this important topic. I am inviting a number of leading academics and senior stakeholders to work closely with us throughout the project.
“Foresight has a critical contribution to make in helping to meet the challenges of the 21st century. It helps ensure that government decision making is informed by longer term evidence-based thinking. By taking a multidisciplinary approach combined with rigorous evaluation, Foresight assists policymakers to think strategically about future uncertainties and opportunities. "
Border and Immigration Minister Phil Woolas said:
“Failure to address future changes in the environment may result in substantial movements of people, which will have political consequences in diaspora communities across the world. This study is very timely”
Joan Ruddock, Minister for Climate Change said:
“We can foresee that climate change is going to be a key driver for global migration and we need to start planning for this now. This project will provide valuable research into an issue which is going to be increasingly important as people respond to the reality of climate change.”
Foresight will work with leading experts from across the world, to assemble and analyse the latest evidence and research on global environmental migration. In doing so, it will develop our understanding of the challenges posed, and assess how the impacts can be managed.
Notes to Editors
1. Foresight is in the Government Office for Science (GO-Science). GO-Science supports the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser in ensuring that the Government has access to, and uses, the best science and engineering advice. It is located within the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, but is professionally independent of it.
2. The UK Government's Foresight Programme helps Government think systematically about the future. Foresight uses the latest scientific and other evidence to provide signposts for policymakers in tackling future challenges.
3. The project will appoint a High Level Stakeholder Group to steer the overall direction of the project. It will be co-chaired by the sponsoring Departments' Ministers - Phil Woolas MP (HO) and Joan Ruddock MP (DECC). The High Level Stakeholder Group will include senior representatives from key interested organisations in the public sector, the research community and business. A Lead Expert Group will work with Foresight to ensure the project's findings are of the highest technical and scientific standard. Recruitment to both groups is underway and will be completed later this year.
4. Further details about the project can be found on the Foresight website (http://www.foresight.gov.uk/).
Contacts:
BIS Press Office
NDS.BIS@coi.gsi.gov.uk
