WIREDGOV

Renewable energy power generation capacity grew by 30% in Europe in 2010, more than in any other year, reaching a total of 23GW. However a noticeable lack of progress on reform to the infrastructure planning and permits regime now poses the single biggest threat to the future large scale expansion of renewable electricity in Europe and North Africa.

The analysis, Moving towards 100% renewable electricity in Europe and North Africa, was undertaken by PwC, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis. This complementary analysis to last year’s ground breaking 2050 Roadmap report examined developments and events globally over the past twelve months to understand whether, for Europe and North Africa, a vision of 100% renewable electricity by 2050 has moved closer or further away.

The report found that while progress towards a potential 100% renewable electricity supply for Europe and North Africa has been largely positive with achievements outweighing negative developments, infrastructure permitting and planning to build or connect new installations to the grid is the area causing the greatest disruption to progress, and now represent the biggest threat to progress.

The analysis found that growth in renewable energy capacity was underpinned by good achievements in the areas of political leadership and technological progress. However, continued growth would rely on European wide integration of electricity markets to better match fluctuating renewable electricity production with consumer demand, and a positive investment climate, currently hampered by short term planning.

Short term planning represents a major risk to investment as does ongoing short-term changes of many national support schemes such as Feed in Tariffs, with changes underway in Spain, the UK, Italy and Germany. The need for continued market reform, to promote access and competition, remain key hurdles for the sector to cross.

Gus Schellekens, director, sustainability and climate change at PwC said:

“Despite uncertainty around regulation, rising energy demand, climate change regulation and technology progress will continue to push against the technology boundaries. Renewable technologies are being pushed to expansion by energy and market demand. Even if they have yet to be tested at full scale, wind or solar power have proved themselves as technologies in smaller scale installations with established supplies in Spain, Germany and Italy.

“We are now quickly approaching a point where further growth in renewables will be constrained by historical political, market and social factors. The report has identified areas where immediate and concerted action is needed to enable this growth to continue and the delivery of ambitious longer-term government visions to remain on track.”

Antonella Battaglini of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) said:

“Today it is barely possible to build a single transmission line, especially between countries, as a result of inefficient legislation and public opposition. Unless we start to build the infrastructure for a SuperSmart Grid for Europe and North Africa quickly and efficiently, we can abandon the dream of reaching the 100% renewables electricity system by 2050.”

In other areas, the impacts of developments are mixed and progress is more fragile. The analysis highlights how political protests and upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa have had a negative impact on renewable development in the region. Whether this negative impact is short-term or long-term depends on whether and how quickly the countries involved can move towards more stable and effective governance.

Anthony Patt, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, said:

“An important insight from this analysis is that progress towards achieving 100% renewable electricity in Europe and North Africa may depend less on international climate negotiations than it does on a democratic outcome to the Arab Spring, or on efforts to increase the competitiveness of power markets for the benefit of European consumers.”

Martin Rocholl of SEFEP, the funder of the report, said:

“The expansion of renewable energy sources is key to SEFEP’s mission which aims at reaching 70% renewable power by 2030 in Europe. This report shows that important steps have been made but also that without a long-term vision, political leadership and longevity of regulations it will be hard to reach the targets set. SEFEP will continue to build bridges across society to stimulate support for a fast and effective transformation into a largely renewable power sector.”

*For interview or further information please contact Rowena Mearley - 07841 563 180.

1. In spring 2010, European and international climate experts at PwC, the European Climate Forum, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis published 100% Renewable Electricity – A roadmap to 2050 for Europe and North Africa. The report examined the potential for powering Europe and North Africa with renewable electricity exclusively by 2050. It set out a series of financial, market, infrastructure and government policy steps that would need to occur if such a ‘what if’ vision was to be achieved. This latest report provides a complementary analysis to the original roadmap, intended to support the wider debate in this area, and areas critical to achieving progress and looks at the impact of recent and current events.
2. The report uses a framework for measuring progress comprising five enabling factors: Political leadership, Market structure, Investment climate, Planning and permitting for new infrastructure, Technological progress. It assessed progress by looking at the impact of a series of developments and events including global climate negotiations and policy, EU electricity policy developments, National renewable electricity developments, public opposition, civil unrest and protest in North Africa and the Japanese earthquake.
3. The UN Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in early May that close to 80 percent of the world‘s energy supply could be met by renewables by mid-century if backed by the right enabling public policies. The findings, from over 120 researchers also indicate that the rising penetration of renewable energies could lead to cumulative greenhouse gas savings equivalent to 220 to 560 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtC02eq) between 2010 and 2050. The upper end of the scenarios assessed, representing a cut of around a third in greenhouse gas emissions from business-as-usual projections, could assist in keeping concentrations of greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million.

Click here for full press release