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The first three year periodic report outlining the progress made between publication of the fuel poverty strategy in December 2021 to December 2024.

Introduction

Background and Context

In line with the Fuel Poverty (Targets, Definition and Strategy) (Scotland) Act 2019 (“the 2019 Act”), this is the first fuel poverty periodic report covering progress since publication of our Tackling fuel poverty in Scotland strategy on 23 December 2021 – covering a consecutive 3-year period to 22 December 2024. This report details the steps, and the progress made in the reporting period for the purpose of addressing the four drivers of fuel poverty and meeting the fuel poverty targets. It also sets out the proposed steps in the next 3-year reporting period, 2025-27.

The global and geo-political landscape has significantly evolved since early 2022, with energy prices at unprecedented levels. This demonstrates that high fuel prices have been the largest factor influencing fuel poverty rates in recent years.

While the Scottish housing stock has become more energy efficient with the percentage of dwellings rated EPC C or higher increasing from 45% in 2019 to 56% in 2023, fuel poverty rates have continued to rise, with the 2023 Scottish House Condition Survey estimating that 34% of households in Scotland were in fuel poverty, an increase from 31% in 2022 and 24.6% in 2019. Median household incomes had increased slowly but steadily since the recovery after the recession in 2008-09. The most recent figures show a slight fall from 2018 onward.

At intervening periods, there has been crisis support interventions by both the Scottish and UK Governments, which is an important element alongside the real and sustainable change and actions necessary, which are only possible at a reserved level. These include areas on energy market reform and rebalancing of gas and electricity prices, to support fuel poverty targets and our net zero ambitions. This report reflects upon the limitations of devolved powers, whilst we seek to utilise and maximise every available power at our disposal, towards our ever-challenging statutory fuel poverty targets.

Appointment of a Statutory, Independent Advisory body 2022

The 2019 Act sets out the establishment of the Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel. The Panel are an advisory non-departmental public body which provides independent advice to Scottish Ministers on fuel poverty and scrutiny of their progress towards delivering Scotland’s 2040 fuel poverty targets. The Panel’s Secretariat was appointed in the third quarter of 2022.

The Panel published their first annual report in June 2024, which sets out the full extent of their work since appointment in January 2022. This includes reflections on the significant increase in fuel poverty rates from 2022, driven by the energy crisis and the wider cost of living crisis, and the impact these have had on those experiencing fuel poverty. As referenced within the Panel’s 3-year strategic plan 2024-27, there is coordination with other public bodies, whose work aligns with fuel poverty, including the Poverty and Inequality Commission and engagement with the Commission’s own Experts by Experience Panel, as a voice of poverty lived experience.

Progress with an Outcomes-Focused Monitoring and Evaluation Framework

To support the development of a robust outcomes-focused Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) framework for the Fuel Poverty Strategy, a structured development process was discussed with the Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel and is currently being taken forward by Scottish Government analysts. Building on earlier work, carried out with a range of stakeholders prior to the Strategy’s publication in 2021, it was necessary to revisit the 55 actions to identify whether any changes or developments had been made since the Strategy inception, as well as to consider the potential impacts of other important changes in the wider context, such as the ongoing impacts of COVID-19 and cost-of-living-crisis.

The first step has been to establish a Theory of Change (ToC) for each individual action within the Strategy, as well as an overarching ToC for the Strategy as a whole. A Theory of Change is a way of articulating the long-term goals to be achieved as a result of a policy action (long-term outcomes) and the process that will lead to those goals (short- and medium-term outcomes).

Two main methods have been used so far to develop the ToC actions:

1. A series of online workshops
2. Reporting template issued and returned through email correspondence

As the Strategy includes 55 actions undertaken in multiple different policy areas, initial work has focused on internal teams to ensure overlap between policy areas is fully captured and inter-policy influence could be discussed.

Teams were brought together in workshops to allow for a more collaborative discussion across overlapping policy areas. Discussions were structured around key questions for each action, focusing on identifying short, medium and long term outcomes for those experiencing fuel poverty, and considering wider influencing factors/potential unintended consequences. Workshops with analysts focussed on identifying available evidence, as well as key gaps, and subsequent written returns were also used to gather additional data where needed.

To date, nine internal ToC workshops have been facilitated by analysts: eight workshops with policy teams across a wide range of topics related to the four drivers of fuel poverty, and one with analysts also brought together from different teams.

The data from this process will be used, along with data from the Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel, to develop an up-to-date outcomes-focussed logic model. The logic model will provide a graphic representation of the outcomes-focussed ToC at programme level, while also including other important information such as potential unintended consequences and factors that may influence the realisation of long-term goals.

Periodic Report overview

In alignment with our statutory duties, this report focuses on three sections. The first section outlines the steps that we have taken, and the progress made over the reporting period in addressing the four drivers of fuel poverty to meet the fuel poverty targets, including official data sources in assessing progress against our targets. This is followed by section 2 which covers monitoring and reporting of our strategic actions to date, before setting out next steps for the 2025-27 reporting period in section 3, including analysis from the targeted engagement with organisations and bodies who were included in statute or were selected as representative partners in line with the 2019 Act.

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