WIREDGOV

With more settled and warmer weather finally in the forecast later this week for some (albeit briefly), there’s been plenty of speculation on the seemingly dreary summer weather so far.

At the halfway point of meteorological summer, we explore if it has been as cool, cloudy and wet as many people think?  

Average rainfall, with wet spells for some 

Early provisional Met Office statistics for 1 June to 15 July say the summer so far has actually been slightly drier than average. 113.8mm of rain has fallen across the UK, which is 45% of the long-term meteorological average for the whole of the season. At this point, you’d expect 49% of the total to have fallen.  

There are of course regional differences, with northern Scotland seeing 57% of its long-term meteorological average compared to Wales, which has seen 37%. 

In terms of rainfall, June 2024 was actually quite dry, with only northern Scotland exceeding its average rainfall. But July 2024 has been wet so far, with areas of the southwest, southeast and northeast England having already received more than their average rainfall for the whole of July. Indeed, the UK has recorded 58.7mm, 71% of its long-term meteorological average for the whole of July. At this point in the month you’d expect to have had 48% of the average rainfall.  

Cool weather for many 

Although a few places reached heatwave conditions back at the end of June, summer 2024 so far has been cooler than average. At the time of writing, the mean temperature in the UK stands at 13.04°C, which is 1.55°C cooler than the long-term meteorological average for the summer reason. 

July 2024 has continued June’s theme of cooler than average weather, with temperatures persistently below average across the UK for the first part of the month.  

So how does this compare to previous mid-summer stats? 

It’s important to remember that we are now only halfway through meteorological summer. We still have the second half of July and August to go, and summer weather can sway statistics in short periods of time. 

Things can change quickly when it comes to summer rainfall, with short heavy bursts quickly pepping up totals and a few very hot days can bring average temperatures up quickly.  

Looking back at previous statistics from this time period (1 June to 15 July) in a daily series from 1960, the lowest mean temperature recorded in the UK was 11.22°C back in 1972.  

The lowest 12 average temperatures for the period were all recorded before the year 2010, with the start of summer 2012 being the coldest in the 21st century at 12.77°C. The mean temperature of 13.04°C in 2024 stands as the 17th coolest start to summer. 

Rainfall data (in a series from 1891) shows that with 113.8mm of rain for the UK so far, summer 2024 is around average so far for rainfall. The wettest year on record was 2012, which saw 222.3mm of rainfall for this time period, with the driest year in 1921 seeing just 24.7mm fall.   

Met Office Scientist Emily Carlisle said: “British summers are highly variable. Some summers are hot and dry, some are cold and wet. June was a month of contrasts for many, with a cool first half of the month offset by warmth later in the month. Ultimately though, it was cooler and drier than average, with July continuing with this cool theme, which we can see with the cooler-than-average temperatures.  

“What we have seen in the first half of July though, has been the addition of more wet weather. Low pressure across the UK has led to an unsettled start to the month, with several frontal systems bringing bands of rain. This has brought rainfall totals for the season so far up, with summer 2024 actually around average for rainfall, although it may not feel it at the moment.” 

What’s behind the recent weather? 

When looking at the underlying patterns behind the UK’s weather, the jet stream plays a prominent role and that has been the case in recent weeks, as Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist David Hayter explained: “The position of the jet stream, which is a ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere, is often the driving force behind the weather we experience in the UK,” said David. 

“Just small shifts in the position of the jet stream can lead to big differences in the weather we experience on the ground. In recent weeks, the jet stream has been either directed towards the UK, or shifted further south, which has predominantly brought cooler air over the UK, with frequent incursions of some unseasonable winds and rain. 

“For warm weather in the UK in summer, you’d tend to see the jet stream shifted further north, which allows the possibility of warmer air to drift over the UK from the south, though this isn’t always the case. Unfortunately for those who like the warmth, we have only had brief periods where this pattern has been present in summer so far.” 

So is summer coming back? 

Despite the drizzly start to Tuesday, there is warmth on the horizon, with temperatures due to rise for many parts of the UK by midway through the week.  

Rebekah Hicks, Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office said: “A change of weather type is on the way over the next 24 hours, with high pressure in the east drawing up warmer air from the continent over the next few days. Although temperature may be near normal in the northwest, it will be turning very warm in the south and east, with maxima of up to 30°C in southeast England on Friday.   

“The nights are also expected to be very warm in the southeast on Thursday and Friday, with temperatures potentially staying above 20°C in some places overnight. 

“The heat doesn’t look to last long though, as a frontal system pushes the warm air away and things turn more unsettled at the weekend.”

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