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EXPERT COMMENT

Despite fears that Iran–Pakistan strikes would see spillover of conflict from the Middle East, the situation remains relatively self-contained.

The recent escalation of tensions between Iran and Pakistan has fuelled concerns of a potential spillover of conflict from the Middle East into South Asia. Events in recent months have highlighted Iran’s role as a volatile geopolitical actor through its support for regional proxies like Hamas and the Houthis.  

But on 16 January, Iran took direct action and carried out attacks on alleged strongholds of the militant group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan, which borders Iran. Pakistan responded two days later with its own air strikes on several targets in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province with the aim of targeting alleged safe havens and sanctuaries of the Baluchistan Liberation Army and Baluchistan Liberation Front. Both sides claimed there were civilian casualties.

In response, Islamabad recalled its ambassador from Tehran and barred the return of the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan, although both sides have since agreed to restore diplomatic ties. Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, will visit Pakistan at the end of January in a further effort to re-normalize relations.

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