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EXPERT COMMENT

Reconciling its transatlantic approach with EU defence initiatives could make Poland a leader on European defence.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has thrown Poland into the spotlight as an emerging but serious actor on European defence. Spending 4 per cent of its GDP on defence, it is one of the few European states that exceeds NATO’s 2 per cent target.

Located on NATO’s eastern flank and with living memory of life under Soviet rule, Poland is well aware of the threat Russia poses – to all of Europe – and has been warning allies for years. In recent months, this threat has become all the more apparent as European states fight increased disinformation efforts, acts of sabotage and arson attacks from Russia or Russia-sponsored operatives.

At the same time, much like the rest of Europe, Poland is having to plan for a medium- to long-term scenario whereby the US might reallocate resources to the Indo-Pacific as China ramps up its belligerent actions in the region. Such a shift will have implications for Polish security and defence.

The central tenets of Poland’s security policy posture are the Article 5 security guarantee provided through its NATO membership and its bilateral relationship with the US. Going forward, Poland will have to reconcile its historically transatlanticist approach with one that maximizes EU-led initiatives to help boost its defence industrial capacity.

Poland could become one of Europe’s most prominent security actors. Between 2022 and 2023, its defence budget grew in real terms by 46 per cent. In 2025, Warsaw plans a further 10 per cent increase in its defence budget. But for Poland to take on a leading role in European defence and security efforts, simply increasing defence spending will not be enough. It will also need to develop a long-term, strategic vision for defence, which guides procurement and capability development.

Poland’s revised 2017 military concept already acknowledged the importance of self-reliance and maximizing deterrence. It is now also increasingly turning to EU defence mechanisms. 

Since Civic Coalition won the October 2023 elections, Poland has been one of the key states working to boost the importance of defence on the EU agenda. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stressed the importance of joint EU defence spending, while Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has advocated for expanding the EU’s European Rapid Development Capacity (RDC).

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.