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EXPERT COMMENT

While the elections will demonstrate the vibrancy and resilience of Taiwan’s political system, no presidential candidate has a clear-cut answer for how to sustain its democracy and self-government long term.

In an ideal world, Taiwan’s national elections would be nothing to do with China or the US. They would simply be an opportunity for the self-governing island’s 24 million people to choose the politicians and policies that best satisfy their aspirations. But when polling stations open on 13 January, cross-strait relations and geopolitics will weigh on the minds of voters.

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposing Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) all claim that they are best placed to preserve Taiwan’s de facto independence and peace with China, despite differences in how warmly they would approach Beijing.

With incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP stepping down having reached the two-term limit, her vice-president, Lai Ching-te, is the front-runner, followed by Hou Yu-ih of the KMT and Ko Wen-je of the TPP. Polls suggest, however, that the DPP might lose its majority in the Legislative Yuan, as Taiwan’s parliament is known.

True to its roots, the DPP has been the most outspoken about the growing threat posed by Beijing, while the KMT and TPP have said that they would seek to open channels of communication with the Chinese leadership, while also boosting Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.

However, the major challenge for all remains that the Communist Party of China (CPC) claims Taiwan as an inalienable part of China’s territory and refuses to renounce the use of force to take the island. General Secretary Xi Jinping has further intensified the military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan since he took office in 2012.

Tensions over Taiwan have been exacerbated by the rapid deterioration of the relationship between China and the US. The US maintains extensive unofficial ties with Taipei and is committed by legislation to provide it with the means to defend itself. President Joe Biden has even vowed to send US forces to Taiwan in the face of an unprovoked Chinese attack, although senior administration officials have suggested that Washington is still following a policy of ’strategic ambiguity’. While Beijing is unlikely to pursue a war of choice against Taiwan any time soon, the risks are rising that escalation, provocation and miscalculation might bring the US and China into conflict over Taiwan. 

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.