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EXPERT COMMENT

The war serves Russia’s interests by weakening US support for Ukraine. But Moscow’s need for closer relations with the Global South has badly damaged relations with Israel.

Since the 1960s, America has endeavoured to ensure that its armed forces can fight two major conflicts in geographically distinct regions simultaneously. While the US is not doing much of the actual fighting, the wars between Russia and Ukraine, and between Hamas and Israel suggest that its ‘two-theatre provision’ has been prophetic.

The wars are scarcely analogous in origin or form. But Ukraine and Israel are both fighting in the knowledge that an end to US support would have severe consequences for their ability to fight. In Ukraine’s case, it would surely lead to defeat within months, if not weeks.

The Biden administration has attempted to ‘future-proof’ its support for Ukraine by ring-fencing it within a combined $105 billion aid package, $61.4 billion of which is earmarked for Ukraine. But this has yet to be approved by Congress, and the new war inevitably draws the attention of US politicians, media and the public away from Ukraine.

Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.